In 2000 Debbie and I
returned to the Cleveland, Ohio area, for good. Notice the comma in
that sentence; it’s important.
After living in the
Detroit area for fourteen years, and in the far southern part of Ohio
for the seven year prior to that, we did move here for good in the sense that
this would be one of our last moves, and certainly our last big one. But the for good part has
an additional meaning: we returned to be closer to our family and
many of our old friends. We are happy that we did it; it’s proven
to be a very good move.
Although we were sad
to have left our Michigan friends, the old Ohio buddies welcomed us
back. We also made several new friends, and many of these were
through running. One of the very first of those to welcome me
personally was Mike George. Mike was one of several that I met
through the
Dead Runners Society (aka DRS, an international internet
group of runners who write about their running).
Since we’ve stayed
in touch, Mike and I have now been friends for seventeen years. We
traveled to Maryland together to run the JFK 50-Mile run, and even
met up in Prague before the Prague Marathon. We now work at the same
company and still occasionally run together.
I know what you’re
thinking. That’s nice Dan, but what does it have to do with pooping
(or not) in the pool? And the answer is: lots.
Mike is a
self-described climate change skeptic. He has written some thoughtful, even analytical
comments in response to my
If You Believe
post. My answer follows, but first I want to say that we need to keep
this kind of dialogue going. I truly appreciate all comments and
criticism. But I am still struggling mightily to understand how and
why reasonable, thoughtful, intelligent people – many of them
family members and friends like Mike – either a) don’t believe
the climate is changing, b) believe it’s changing but the change is
not man-made, or c) believe in a
nthropogenic
climate change, but don’t think it’s important enough to
vote accordingly. This struggle is described in greater detail in my
An Open Letter post, and it's still going.
Now that that’s
out of the way, I should say that I’m not so sure I’m the best
person to conduct a debate such as this, for several reasons:
1) I consider myself
a lousy debater. I almost never win. I can only barely convince my
wife that I’m not such an awful guy, and that’s only after 41
years of marriage (just kidding there – I think she thinks highly
of me).
2) Even though I
believe in the science, I’m certainly not a scientist. I only write
about it in this blog because I feel it’s important with regards to
the future of our little planet. Where’s
Bill Nye when you need
him?
3) Despite what I
said about keeping the dialogue going, I have other feelings in the
back of my head, to the effect that we ought to be well beyond debate
on this issue. We no longer debate whether the earth is the round,
whether we’re at the center of the universe, or whether gravity,
relativity or electricity exist. That would be counter-productive;
discussion on those topics now centers around how best to work with
the facts at hand. It’s the same with climate change. It’s where
that issue/debate ought to be now.
Now, aren’t you
happy that’s out of the way? On to Mike’s assertions.
The amount of change
appears to vary widely, depending on the source. Mike cites one
source stating the rise has been +1.0 C in the past 50 years, and
another claiming +0.8 C in 100 years. My response is that this is the
internet; anyone can say anything. Some discrepancies may be due to
different start and end points, including, if it’s a little older,
no reference to the data of the past couple record heat years. My
preference is data from NASA. I don’t think there can be any
dispute of that.
This page states a rise of 0.6 C to 0.9 C degrees
between 1906 and 2005.
Secondly, Mike
questions data projected into the past, before humans began to record
it. One of my favorite
charts begins 20000 BCE. Where and how do they get data going back that far,
or even as far back as 1950? The answer is that there is an entire
field dedicated to this end called paleoclimatology.
Here is a high level overview. The
Wikipedia page
explains that, ‘it uses a variety of proxy methods from the Earth
and life sciences to obtain data previously preserved within things
such as rocks, sediments, ice sheets, tree rings, corals, shells and
microfossils.’
Thirdly, Mike
asserts that variation in solar radiation is considerable, and ought
to have a much greater impact on the earth’s temperatures than the
amount of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere, measured in parts per
million (PPM). According to
information from the EPA, many factors, both natural and human, cause changes in Earth’s
energy balance, including variations in the sun's energy, changes in
the reflectivity of earth’s atmosphere/surface, and changes in the
greenhouse effect, which affects the amount of heat retained by
earth’s atmosphere. The EPA goes on to say, ‘Recent climate
changes, however, cannot be explained by natural causes alone.
Research indicates that natural causes do not explain most observed
warming, especially warming since the mid-20th century. Rather, it is
extremely likely that human activities have been the dominant cause
of that warming.’
I very much doubt
that I’ve convinced Mike, who does admit that he’s better informed after
some of the same research. This is a little discouraging. If we can't convince a friend who is thoughtful and thorough, who can we convince? Anyone?
