“Life is pleasant. Death is peaceful. It's the transition that's
troublesome.” This quote is attributed to Author Isaac Asimov.
Transitions can indeed be pesky, especially in some areas. Let’s
put it in terms of anthropogenic (human-caused) climate change:
“Fossil fuels are easy and cheap. A green economy based on
renewable energy is clean. It’s the transition that’s
troublesome.” Most reasonable people understand that our current
use of fossil fuels is unsustainable and that a clean energy future
is inevitable if civilization is to survive. The only difficult part
is the transition.
It’s safe to say that many of us,
even those who fully understand the scope of the problem, prefer a
slower transition, while environmentalists strongly believe that the
conversion must be done at an accelerated pace. It’s interesting
that renewable energy is now at least as cheap as fossil fuels, and
that capitalism will eventually take its course no matter what. But
will it happen soon enough? The short answer is no.
The
outlook for Planet Earth with regard to Climate Change is bleak. As
predicted by climate models, the early results of the addition of
tons of carbon dioxide and other chemicals to the atmosphere are
devastating. The cost of climate disasters in terms of money and
lives increases nearly every year. Considered over several years or
decades, these costs are alarming. Don’t believe that this trend
will reverse itself anytime soon. But is the situation hopeless? Not
quite.
The United Nations Climate Summit known as COP27
has concluded. It ended with a last-minute, hard-fought deal to
create a fund that will help poor countries being battered by climate
disasters. But there was no agreement for a stronger commitment to
the 1.5 C goal/cap set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. Thus, the results
are both gratifying (that some help will be forthcoming where it’s
needed) and discouraging. "It is more than frustrating to see
overdue steps on mitigation and the phase-out of fossil energies
being stonewalled by a number of large emitters and oil producers,"
according to one attendee.
Most now understand that the
1.5 C target will likely not be met. The vast majority of the
countries attending this and other recent climate summits are falling
short of their commitments. Despite this, we must acknowledge the
progress that is nevertheless being made. We have already averted the
worst-case scenarios that were so alarming before 2015. Before Paris,
four degrees of warming was anticipated by the end of the century.
This was considered to be 'cataclysmic.' Now it appears that, because
of the Paris Accord and subsequent agreements, the planet is on track
for just under three degrees, possibly even lower.
Meanwhile,
renewable energy costs are plummeting. The free market will encourage
further progress by taking advantage, and the trend will continue to
accelerate. The U.S. passed the Inflation Reduction Act, its most
significant action yet. And perhaps most hopeful of all (at least in
the long run), the U.S. and China have restarted joint climate
talks.
The transition to a greener world is still
troublesome, but it’s also increasingly inevitable. The thing is,
the sooner, the better.
