I Told You So

No one likes an I-told-you-so. And there is nothing I would have rather been wrong about. But unfortunately for all of us, I was right. Those of you (including many friends and family members) who denied and doubted anthropogenic (human-caused) climate change was wrong. I’m sorry - and you have no idea how much – but I told you so.

How did this happen? I know I’m not smarter than any of you. I do, however, choose to believe and trust in science. You have chosen to believe those who have been supported by people with a vested interest in the status quo of burning fossil fuels. Their purpose is to cast doubt on the facts and the science and to convert this into a political debate, such that they can maintain their fossil-fuel burning, pollution-fueled fortune. Their investment in certain politicians and unscrupulous news outlets has paid off handsomely. This is evidenced by the fact that so many still, despite all the factual information to the contrary, believe their lies. If you’ve believed them in the past, you probably still do as well.

You probably don’t like being called a science denier. You’d rather be considered a 'climate-change skeptic.' That sounds better. Since the global temperature measurements are now literally and figuratively through the roof, you have now been forced to face the fact that the planet’s climate is changing fast. Based on what you hear from Fox News, President Trump, and most members of the Republican Party, you believe you can still be a skeptic, however. Their skepticism and yours take on various dimensions. I prefer to consider them fall-back positions.

Fall-back Position 1: It’s only been a little warmer where I live, so what’s the big deal? The big deal is that July 2019 was the hottest month in human history. It was 0.07 degrees hotter than July 2016, the previous peak month. The past half-decade is likely to become the warmest five-year period ever recorded. The result is unstable weather events occurring worldwide, along with unprecedented melting of Greenland and arctic ice.

Fall-back Position 2: The climate is always changing, and this is just a natural cycle. The temperatures noted above and elsewhere are not just the highest ever recorded. They are the highest in all of human history. In fact, the last time the planet was this warm was 125,000 years ago. Science had predicted this change, and it’s happening before our eyes.

Fall-back Position 3: You can’t prove that human activity is to blame. Even if it is, science hasn’t been able to say how much. The first argument is beginning to fall away, as the scientific proof of the greenhouse effect has been overwhelming. Fox News is still hanging on to the second argument, however. Although there is some uncertainty due to the role of natural variability, researchers state that ocean fluctuations and similar factors are unlikely to be the cause of more than a small fraction of modern global warming. The best estimate of the human contribution to modern warming is 100%.

Science is not always right. When it is wrong, however, it does manage to self-correct and continue to build upon itself. What would it take for science to get this one wrong? A lot. According to Carl Sagan, extraordinary claims (such as all other climate scientists are wrong), though not necessarily wrong, do require extraordinary proof. That has not happened. Not even close.

You’ve made the mistake of believing what you want to be true, instead of what is true. I’m sorry, but you were wrong.

What can we do? Two very simple things: First, live your life like the environment matters. It does. The planet is your home and mine. Don’t mess it up. Second, vote for people who will do the right thing. If a person refuses to pass legislation to protect the environment, he or she is not a good person, and does not deserve your vote.